The world’s eyes are now fastened on the Korean Peninsula as the two Koreas, North and South Korea, is determined to make history. As to whether this will result to a third world war, a regional instability brought about by a war or it ending in a peaceful resolution of the conflict will be remain to be seen in the coming days.
North Korea has been taunting South Korea and other countries for the past decades. For several years now North Korea has been accused of abducting Japanese and South Koreans alike. North Korea has been under repeated sanctions by the United Nations Security council, for developing nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction and continuing on their nuclear testing. Despite this the North Koreans won’t budge and continues to defy the world’s super powers.
There seems to be a lot of indication that the tension between the two Koreas will escalate into a conflict. Last March 2010, a North Korean submarine sinks a South Korean Navy ship killing several of its crew. Just today, November 24, 2010, North Korea bombarded a South Korean island near their disputed western border on Tuesday. The attack killed several people damaged vga cables and set several houses on fire.
What is the likelihood of Korea going to war? Will the two Koreas go to war? What is the effect if ever there will be one? Is North Korea gearing up for war or is this just another of one of North Korea’s tantrums. Well there are several scenarios that could happen.
The first scenario painted by some analyst is that the recent show of force by the North is just “succession” related. They say it is unlikely that North and South Korea will go to war as North Korea knows its limitations. Kim Jong-il is rumored to be sick and is said to be grooming his son Kim Jong-un to take over. Analyst say that this show of force is just to show the world’s super power the North Korea is still a force to be reckoned even if it is going to have a new leader. This is to deter possible attacks as the super powers might wish to take advantage of the situation considering the change in leadership.
Others say that Kim Jong-un is still young and inexperienced and to prove his worth, he is engaging in skirmishes to gain the respect of his father and or his father’s senior military advisers.
The first two are more positive scenarios and can be seen as something that will just past once leadership is successfully turned over to Kim Jong-un. Some even hope that Kim Jong-un will be more open minded than his father and will be open to Korean reunification. In these scenarios it is unlikely that Korea will go to war.
The worst thing that that could happen is that North Korea is prepared to go to war because it has perfected its weapons. The same thing could happen if South Korea wishes to retaliate and the World’s super power, wants to take advantage of this situation to end North Korea’s defiance once and for all.
If indeed North Korea and South Korea will go to war, the United States and most of the world’s super power would most likely support South Korea. The battle would not be as easy as Iraq and may take several weeks or even months. Unlike Iraq, North Korea has a strong, motivated and loyal military force. Although its Navy and Air force have mostly obsolete equipment, its ground forces equipment has been continuously upgraded. North Korea is said to have the largest Special Operations Forces in the world. Its special forces are among the most best trained and best equipped in the world. North Korea’s ground forces and special operations forces are a big threat to South Korea and should not be taken lightly.
The biggest damage that North Korea could do to the world’s super power is if it uses its nuclear weapons capability and launches its ICBMs (Inter Continental Ballistics Missiles) which is reputed to have a range of about 4,000 to 6,200 miles. This could hit most Asian cities and could even possibly hit the United States West coast, Hawaii. However this remains to be a disputed fact as some say that North Korean ICBMs that could reach this far is not yet operational or still undergoing testing.
If North and South Korea really do go to war, in the end, most likely North Korea will face defeat, but the battle will not be easy and thousands if not millions of lives will be lost. In war everybody always looses no matter who wins the battle.