Comments on: A stronger Philippine Peso . . . Fearless forecast for the months to come http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/ Raves, rants and the miscellaneous ramblings of a guerilla blogger Wed, 27 Feb 2013 14:35:06 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: zigfred http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-679 zigfred Wed, 11 Jun 2008 01:37:18 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-679 Edward: The BSP’s official policy has always been a free floating exchange rate system., however it intervenes from time to time to achieve both domestic and international monetary stabilization. I think we will only see minimal BSP intervention if any considering that we still have a modest growth in export and we still have our gains from 2007. Edward: The BSP’s official policy has always been a free floating exchange rate system., however it intervenes from time to time to achieve both domestic and international monetary stabilization. I think we will only see minimal BSP intervention if any considering that we still have a modest growth in export and we still have our gains from 2007.

]]> By: Edgar Tan MD http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-676 Edgar Tan MD Tue, 10 Jun 2008 10:44:51 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-676 In as much as the BSP is trying to intervene to dampen the peso's appreciation before the same thing is happening now, the BSP is trying to dampen the peso's depreciation for obvious reasons. At closing price of 44.42...without BSP intervention perhaps we are now running in the P45-46 level! If oil continues to rise and our government is forced to cut the oil EVAT then all bets are off....we might see a 50 in the near future! Again nobody has the crystal ball but one thing I can say is that the peso will continue to be experiencing a downward pressure and I can see a peso exchange between 44-45 by year end! If oil goes >$150 then it can even surge up to 48-50....that's how I see it this year! In as much as the BSP is trying to intervene to dampen the peso’s appreciation before the same thing is happening now, the BSP is trying to dampen the peso’s depreciation for obvious reasons. At closing price of 44.42…without BSP intervention perhaps we are now running in the P45-46 level!

If oil continues to rise and our government is forced to cut the oil EVAT then all bets are off….we might see a 50 in the near future! Again nobody has the crystal ball but one thing I can say is that the peso will continue to be experiencing a downward pressure and I can see a peso exchange between 44-45 by year end! If oil goes >$150 then it can even surge up to 48-50….that’s how I see it this year!

]]> By: Edgar Tan MD http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-675 Edgar Tan MD Tue, 10 Jun 2008 10:32:17 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-675 Even back late last year the predictions have been negative with analysts predicting 38 and to prove my point I continued to buy the "once mighty" dollar when everybody else was selling. I continued to buy because, the main reason for the peso appreciation is the US economy going into "recession" but nobody else seems to see that the peso already appreciated from P56....at down to P43-44....somehow it has got to stop and I saw a bottom of P42 but at any rate that was a BUY for me..... Anytime the US economy goes into trouble, the US government would do all within its power to prop it back up as what we have seen by the feds cutting rates like crazy. That's how supportive the government is in the US. Nobody seems to also incorporate OIL......while our macroeconomic situation is better, the big "C" (corruption) is still our achilles heel and I can't see it getting any better! The china factor, first it affected "steel supply" then cement....and so it was just a matter of time when it will siphon a significant amount of oil...I can see China becoming a bigger economy than the US in maybe 20yrs so just guess where oil is going to be at that time!! It is funny that my friends in the business community would even ask me to sell the dollar when it was rapidly going down and yet I firmly held my ground and continued buying and so now I have the last laugh! Even back late last year the predictions have been negative with analysts predicting 38 and to prove my point I continued to buy the “once mighty” dollar when everybody else was selling. I continued to buy because, the main reason for the peso appreciation is the US economy going into “recession” but nobody else seems to see that the peso already appreciated from P56….at down to P43-44….somehow it has got to stop and I saw a bottom of P42 but at any rate that was a BUY for me…..

Anytime the US economy goes into trouble, the US government would do all within its power to prop it back up as what we have seen by the feds cutting rates like crazy. That’s how supportive the government is in the US.

Nobody seems to also incorporate OIL……while our macroeconomic situation is better, the big “C” (corruption) is still our achilles heel and I can’t see it getting any better! The china factor, first it affected “steel supply” then cement….and so it was just a matter of time when it will siphon a significant amount of oil…I can see China becoming a bigger economy than the US in maybe 20yrs so just guess where oil is going to be at that time!!

It is funny that my friends in the business community would even ask me to sell the dollar when it was rapidly going down and yet I firmly held my ground and continued buying and so now I have the last laugh!

]]> By: zigfred http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-674 zigfred Tue, 10 Jun 2008 10:22:57 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-674 Edgar: The article was written on Jan 8, 2008. During that time, most analyst and I myself personally believed that the peso will go down the P 38 level. If it were not for central bank intervention, it would have gone down that path. In fact even with the U.S economy slow down, I don’t think we would be affected that much. What really affected us is the Energy and food crises that happened simultaneously. If it were not for these two factors we would have stayed at the 40 level as of now. Nobody expected the bear market to end in just a short period of time. Anyway, Thanks for your input. No forecast is accurate. We have anticpated the oil crises but not the food crises. I guess we missed taking into account the severe impact of these factors in our economy. Edgar: The article was written on Jan 8, 2008. During that time, most analyst and I myself personally believed that the peso will go down the P 38 level. If it were not for central bank intervention, it would have gone down that path.

In fact even with the U.S economy slow down, I don’t think we would be affected that much. What really affected us is the Energy and food crises that happened simultaneously. If it were not for these two factors we would have stayed at the 40 level as of now. Nobody expected the bear market to end in just a short period of time.

Anyway, Thanks for your input. No forecast is accurate. We have anticpated the oil crises but not the food crises. I guess we missed taking into account the severe impact of these factors in our economy.

]]> By: Edgar Tan MD http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-670 Edgar Tan MD Tue, 10 Jun 2008 03:33:24 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-670 I have continued to buy dollars inspite of the downward pressure because deep inside me I knew this is a tremendous opportunity to buy! I incorporate everything in my analysis of things to come. I never could see the peso hitting P38.....never...I saw it hitting P42 but again it was a buying opportunity regardless...we know it hit P40 but it did not last long. I consider the following factors against the peso: 1. Corruption in the government will overshadow any macroeconomic improvements we have..... 2. US economic slowdown is temporary and it is in the best interest of the US to have a strong dollar so guess what they will do!! 3. The "China" factor needs to be considered....imagine selling more than 200,000 cars a month in China....just think what will happen to oil demand???? That drives the oil price as we see it now...there is no way for the peso to hit P38 with a surging chinese demand for oil! The same driver that drives cement price shooting up from P70/bag 5yrs ago to now >P200/bag. 4. Human psychology is very important....they dump when it goes down but they hoard to death when they see it go up....it fuels the current surge of the dollar! 5. I saw P43-44 by end of 2008 even early this year but now the odds of going to P48 is increasing and if oil hits $150....anything goes! I have continued to buy dollars inspite of the downward pressure because deep inside me I knew this is a tremendous opportunity to buy! I incorporate everything in my analysis of things to come. I never could see the peso hitting P38…..never…I saw it hitting P42 but again it was a buying opportunity regardless…we know it hit P40 but it did not last long. I consider the following factors against the peso:
1. Corruption in the government will overshadow any macroeconomic improvements we have…..
2. US economic slowdown is temporary and it is in the best interest of the US to have a strong dollar so guess what they will do!!
3. The “China” factor needs to be considered….imagine selling more than 200,000 cars a month in China….just think what will happen to oil demand???? That drives the oil price as we see it now…there is no way for the peso to hit P38 with a surging chinese demand for oil! The same driver that drives cement price shooting up from P70/bag 5yrs ago to now >P200/bag.
4. Human psychology is very important….they dump when it goes down but they hoard to death when they see it go up….it fuels the current surge of the dollar!
5. I saw P43-44 by end of 2008 even early this year but now the odds of going to P48 is increasing and if oil hits $150….anything goes!

]]> By: Edgar Tan MD http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-669 Edgar Tan MD Tue, 10 Jun 2008 03:16:44 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-669 I happen to buy when everybody else is bullish! I always believe that the US slowdown is temporary yet corruption in the Philippines will always be with us in our lifetime...not to mention that oil will always climb up because of china...so I don't buy the idea to sell the dollars at this time...it may dip but it will just quickly bounce back up!! Just Watch! I happen to buy when everybody else is bullish! I always believe that the US slowdown is temporary yet corruption in the Philippines will always be with us in our lifetime…not to mention that oil will always climb up because of china…so I don’t buy the idea to sell the dollars at this time…it may dip but it will just quickly bounce back up!! Just Watch!

]]> By: zigfred http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-504 zigfred Fri, 09 May 2008 03:38:51 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-504 Myra: No prediction is 100 % accurate. Based on the data we can always make a good guess. If it were not for the rising oil and food prices, the Philippine Peso would had been below the 38 level right now. In fact when it was at 40 it should had been between 38 and 39 if it were not for the intervention of the Philippine Central bank. Yes it is good for OFWs but somehow not good for the rest of us here in the Philippines. If we go back to the 50+ is to 1 level (US dollar to Philippine Peso exchange rate) diesel prices will go up from 40+ to 50 or even 60 per liter. Gasoline will probably be from near 50 to near 70. (That is if global oil prices continue to rise or will remain steady at its current price) With this food prices will contine to rise and inflation will be somewhere from 9 to 12 %. This scenario is really really bad for the Philippine economy. Yes I agree, this scenario is most likely to happen once the U.S economy gets back on its feet. Myra: No prediction is 100 % accurate. Based on the data we can always make a good guess. If it were not for the rising oil and food prices, the Philippine Peso would had been below the 38 level right now. In fact when it was at 40 it should had been between 38 and 39 if it were not for the intervention of the Philippine Central bank.

Yes it is good for OFWs but somehow not good for the rest of us here in the Philippines. If we go back to the 50+ is to 1 level (US dollar to Philippine Peso exchange rate) diesel prices will go up from 40+ to 50 or even 60 per liter. Gasoline will probably be from near 50 to near 70. (That is if global oil prices continue to rise or will remain steady at its current price) With this food prices will contine to rise and inflation will be somewhere from 9 to 12 %. This scenario is really really bad for the Philippine economy. Yes I agree, this scenario is most likely to happen once the U.S economy gets back on its feet.

]]> By: Myra http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-503 Myra Fri, 09 May 2008 02:08:25 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-503 I guess all their predictions about the peso appreciating further in 2008 are all wrong... But this is good news to all OFWs out there who lost 1/3 of their dollar earnings due to peso appreciation (or dollar depreciation as a more accurate terminology). It is kind of depressing that despite the obvious must effect on the domestic economy, peso appreciation did not reap what was expected. All prices are still up, and inflation is on its highest. What Im afraid of is the possible super inflation once the US Economy gets on its feet after the expected recession and the dollar once again gain back its strength. I guess all their predictions about the peso appreciating further in 2008 are all wrong… But this is good news to all OFWs out there who lost 1/3 of their dollar earnings due to peso appreciation (or dollar depreciation as a more accurate terminology). It is kind of depressing that despite the obvious must effect on the domestic economy, peso appreciation did not reap what was expected. All prices are still up, and inflation is on its highest. What Im afraid of is the possible super inflation once the US Economy gets on its feet after the expected recession and the dollar once again gain back its strength.

]]> By: Looking back . . . Top ten post and blog performance for January 2008 | zdiaz.com - A higher calling http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-184 Looking back . . . Top ten post and blog performance for January 2008 | zdiaz.com - A higher calling Fri, 01 Feb 2008 21:21:41 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-184 [...] 1.) A stronger Philippine Peso . . . Fearless forecast - 68 [...] [...] 1.) A stronger Philippine Peso . . . Fearless forecast – 68 [...]

]]> By: zigfred http://www.zdiaz.com/2008/01/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/comment-page-1/#comment-127 zigfred Tue, 15 Jan 2008 01:16:53 +0000 http://www.zdiaz.com/index.php/2008/01/08/a-stronger-philippine-peso-fearless-forecast-for-the-months-to-come/#comment-127 Thanks Jon. Jon Ramos here is one of the best registered financial planners in The Visayas-Mindanao area. You can visit his company website at premierebusinessinc.com Thanks Jon. Jon Ramos here is one of the best registered financial planners in The Visayas-Mindanao area. You can visit his company website at premierebusinessinc.com

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